Normalcy Bias

"It Can't Happen Here"

Normalcy Bias is the cognitive state of denial people enter when facing a looming crisis. It causes people to underestimate the possibility of a disaster and its potential effects.

When the volcano erupted at Pompeii, many residents spent hours continuing their daily routines, ignoring the ash falling from the sky. They believed that because the volcano had never erupted in their lifetime, it never would.

The Mechanism of Freezing

When the brain is presented with information that is too terrifying or contradictory to its model of regular life, it often short-circuits. Instead of panicking (flight) or fighting, it freezes. It attempts to interpret the anomaly as "normal."

• "That loud bang isn't a gunshot; it's a car backfiring."
• "Ideally, the market will correct itself; this isn't a crash."
• "The fire alarm is just a drill."

This delay in recognition is often fatal. In plane crashes, survivors frequently report seeing passengers sitting still in their seats as the cabin fills with smoke, waiting for instructions that never come.

Overcoming the Freeze

Preparation is the antidote to normalcy bias.

1. Accept Possibility: Acknowledge that "black swan" events happen. Just because you haven't seen it doesn't mean it's impossible.
2. Drills: When you have a plan (a mental script) for a disaster, your brain doesn't have to process new information from scratch. It just switches to "Emergency Mode."
3. Action: Do something. Movement breaks the freeze. If you suspect danger, act immediately. It is better to feel silly later than to be dead.*